The "we dodged the bullet" clich￩ came a little too soon following the early January cold front that passed through Florida from the north. While field vegetables and fruits, including citrus, came through relatively unscathed, late reports arrived about a week after stating that strawberries suffered more than originally thought. And it looks like the damage could change the strawberry forecast for the upcoming Valentine's Day holiday -- a typically strong strawberry market time.

"The amount of damage reported from grower to grower varies," Lloyd Rosen, vice president and marking director for William Manis Produce Marketing in Plant City, FL, told The Produce News Jan. 14. "Certainly, the damage that was done will be compensated for by the moderating weather we are experiencing now. Growers, for the most part, didn't yank the destroyed strawberry plants out of the ground, and the nice change in temperature is helping some to recover. The fruit looks lovely in the fields today, although it is apparent that there was certainly some damage."

Mr. Rosen said what the freeze did do to the Florida strawberry crop will disrupt the cycle and prices of the berries. California's crop is said to be weak this year because of the poor weather growers there have had, and some retailers have been buying from Florida.

"This is very unusual because of the distance the berries have to travel," said Mr. Rosen. "But if the freeze causes a shortage, suppliers in Florida will have to service their East Coast customers first, and California will have to wait in line."

Strawberry prices will also be affected if there is a shortage, especially given the high demand during Valentine's Day. Mr. Rosen said that before the freeze, product had been selling at about $14.90 for an eight-count, one- pound flat.

"The market today is $20.90," he said Jan. 14. "This causes a bit of a complex issue. Growers have contracts out for promotions to major retailers a couple of weeks in advance, and they have to honor those prices. When there is a hiccup, such as a freeze that causes a shortage, and berries are scarcer, prices are driven higher. Growers will try to strike a balance between their contract price agreements and what they can make on other deals."

That scenario, however, could cause another falling-domino reaction. Consumers tend to put a cost cap on what they are willing to pay for strawberries because they are an impulse item. Consumers will typically pop one or two in their grocery cart if the berries are $2 for a one-pound clamshell. But if the price jumps higher than $2.99, they begin to back off. If retailers are paying $20.90, plus $1.50 for freight costs, for a total of $22.50, added to the cost of labor at their end, they could not pay any more and still hold a $2.99 retail price.

"Restaurants that have strawberries on their menus would have no choice but to continue to buy them, but other foodservice venues would not," said Mr. Rosen. "The ultimate effect would be a reduced demand and consequently lower prices. Because of this complexity, I don't think we will see strawberries go any higher. But it's all about supply and demand, so you never know for sure."